Real-time traffic management scenario evaluation

This paper described a prediction system called BSES (Boss Scenario Evaluation System), which can evaluate control scenarios in real time, predicting their effects in terms of various measures of effectiveness. The system is case-based, i.e. it uses either synthetic or real-life examples of the effect of control scenarios under different circumstances. It determines the similarity of the current situation to different examples in the case-base using fuzzy logic, and uses agent-technology to predict the effects of the different measures for small sub-networks and to combine these predictions afterwards. The test results illustrate the workings of the system, and show that the system can provide the operator with real-time predictions. It is shown that the method is applicable to generalise the data it uses.